Friday, October 21, 2016

LeBlanc or Locke: Who Should the Pirates Keep

With Arbitration Time looming of the horizon the Pittsburgh Pirates have a total of eight arbitration eligible players including five starters. The two starters that have questionable futures with the Pirates are Wade LeBlanc and Jeff Locke. Each has MLB starting experience but which one will the Pirates want to go with moving forward.


We are about a month into the Pittsburgh Pirates off-season and while the Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago Cubs are still thinking about this season, the Pirates are already taking a look ahead to try to top the Cubs in the 2017 season. That means its time to take a look at the arbitration eligible players on this years Pirates team.

The Pirates have a total of eight arbitration eligible players including Tony Watson, Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes, Jordy Mercer, Jeff Locke, Drew Hutchinson, Wade LeBlanc, and Gerrit Cole. Of that list Watson, Hughes, Mercer, Hutchinson, and Cole are almost guaranteed contracts for the 2017 season. Nicasio was only signed to a one year contract by the Pirates this off-season and will more than likely not be tendered a contract.

That leaves the Pirates with two question marks on this list in LeBlanc and Locke. Both have starter experience throughout their careers and both pitched out of the bullpen in 2016 for the Pirates. The Pirates are still looking for a long-relief man, but the rotation looks to be in good shape, so the Pirates only have to keep one of these two options.

The first option has been with the Pirates since the 2011 season and has had an up and down career overall to say the least. Last season he went 9-8 with a 5.44 ERA striking out 73 and walking 44 in 127.1 innings of work. Locke started the year off in the Pirates rotation, but of his 19 starts he allowed four or more runs eight times throughout the season and his ERA skyrocketed.

He was then moved to the bullpen permanently late in the season where he was relegated to long relief duties. He actually performed well in the Pirates bullpen compiling a total of five shutout outings as well as not giving up more than three earned runs in any of his bullpen appearances. 

With Jeff Locke their are two scenarios you can encounter. Either he will pitch like a number one starter in any rotation or you will get a guy who doesnt belong in the big leagues. These inconsistencies have killed Locke throughout his Pirates career. The biggest example of this coming in 2013 when he was named to the all-star game for his stellar first half. However, in the second half he would fall apart and would end the year with a record of 10-7 and a 3.52 ERA. That season would be the best one of his career.

About the only thing Locke has been consistent with over his MLB career is the number of innings he logs for the Pirates. In each season since he was named to the Pirates starting rotation, he has pitched at least 130 innings. Injuries have not been a problem for Locke throughout his career and he has been able to stay healthy over the course of his career.

One key contributing factor to Locke's struggles is the number of hits he has given up over his career, especially in the last two seasons. In 2016, he through 127.1 innings of work and gave up a total of 151 hits. In 2015, he gave up 179 hits in 168.1 innings of work. The more batters can put the bat on the ball, the more runs you are going to give up.

While Locke has struggled throughout his career, it hasnt been easy sailing for Wade LeBlanc either. LeBlanc came to the Pirates in a waiver trade that sent LeBlanc to the Pirates and a player to be named later or cash to the Seattle Mariners. LeBlanc slipped right into the Pirates bullpen and helped to add depth for the final month and a half of the season.

LeBlanc pitched very well out of the Pirates bullpen through eight games putting together an 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA striking out 10 and walking two over 12 innings of work. LeBlanc was used mostly as a middle reliever for the Pirates at the end of the 2016 season helping to bridge the gap between the starters and Tony Watson at the end of the bullpen.

However, LeBlanc does have some starting experience in his career. For the Mariners last season he appeared in 11 games and made eight starts going 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA striking out 41 and walking nine through 50 innings of work. LeBlanc has played for five different MLB teams throughout his career and has spent a lot of that time as a starter.

He broke into the big leagues with the San Diego Padres and struggled as his ERA rose just a little bit every single year. He then joined the, at that time, Florida Marlins where his downward spiral continued. He then moved to the bullpen in 2014 where brought his ERA back down to a respectable 3.94. He missed all of the 2015 season and came back this year with the Mariners.

One plus with LeBlanc is his experience both as a starter and in the bullpen. LeBlanc could be used anywhere from a one to two inning guy all the way up to starting in games for the Pirates. Manager Clint Hurdle loves to use his pitchers in multiple roles so LeBlanc fits that aspect just from his experience alone.

One concern with LeBlanc, however, is the high ERA throughout his career. His career low ERA came in his first full big league season where it sat at 3.69. It has gone up every year since then, with exception  to 2014 and 2016. LeBlanc is another guy who gives up a lot of hits throughout his career and can get into trouble in that aspect.

LeBlanc will strike out his fair share of batters as the Pirates saw this season when he struck out 10 in 12 innings of work. Over his career, LeBlanc has a K/9 ratio of 6.25 which is a little bit above the league average. He has also been able to keep his number of walks down throughout his career with a 3.01 BB/9.

Another positive for LeBlanc is that he is a right handed pitcher pitching in PNC Park. With the spacious left-field that goes all the way out to 410 feet in the notch, and coupled with the fact that the Pirates have an all-star left fielder in Starling Marte, LeBlanc is going to be able to limit the number of hits he gives up with his good defense. He has already begun that transformation with the Pirates as in 12 innings of work he only gave up seven hits.

So, the Pirates have a choice to make going into arbitration this season. Stay with Locke who has been with the club for so many years or go with the veteran who has bounced around the league. If you ask me personally I would rather see LeBlanc in a Pirates uniform next season, but that is up to the Pirates organization to decide. Whichever one the Pirates decide to part ways with, it will open up some extra money for the Pirates to use in the free-agent market to acquire a veteran starting pitcher.

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