Pittsburgh Pirates Rotation Looks For Consistency In 2016
With Spring Training Quickly approaching, I will be taking a look at each position group on the field and how they will contribute to this Pirates team throughout the 2016 season.
Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation was full of quality starting pitching including the likes of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett, and J.A. Happ. Cole lead the group with 19 wins and an ERA of 2.60. That rotation was key to the Pirates achieving 98 wins and making the National League Playoffs for the third season in a row.
Looking to this season, the only two of those four that remain are Cole and Liriano. While that is a good one two punch the rest of the rotation has a big question mark on its back. The additions of Jon Neise and Ryan Vogelsong bring in two wily veterans both coming off of sub par seasons. We will take a look at all five of the projected starters for the rotation and talk about how they look to help the Pirates this season.
Gerrit Cole #45 RHP
Gerrit Cole was the unsung leader of the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation last season. He had a record of 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA, both career records for the 25 year old. He set career records in almost every pitching category including innings pitched (208.0), Strikeouts (202), and Whip (1.09). Whenever the Pirates needed him during the season he was able to come through and keep the Pirates in the game. He only gave up more than three earned runs three times all season.
Since his call up in the 2013, Cole has not had a losing record and has been everything the Pirates hoped for. He has a career record of 40-20 with an ERA of 3.07. All things considered Cole has been a great pick for the Pirates. He was chosen as the first overall pick in the 2011 First Year Player Draft out of UCLA and has never had a losing record as a professional.
The key to Cole's success as a major leaguer is his ability to strike out batters. He had a strikeout per nine inning of 8.74 in the 2015 season, and over his career that average sits at 8.55. He has been able to do this while keeping his number of walks low with that average in 2015 at 1.90. He is able to strike many batters out while not giving out many free passes.
One of the downfalls to Cole is his batting average on balls in play, which was .308 last season. If the batter makes contact with one of Cole's pitches it is highly likely that that ball will find a hole and count as a hit. This is something that can also be improved by defensive play which the Pirates have definitely built on this season.
2016 Season Prediction
In 2016, look for Cole to be a leader once again of this pitching rotation. The Ace will have to keep up the solid work he has put forth over his career. In 2016 I expect Cole to have a record of 22-9 with an ERA around 3.10. I can see a small jump in ERA with the increased responsibility for Cole, but I feel he will be up to the challenge and will be able to dominate once again like he did in 2015.
Francisco Liriano #47 LHP
The second part of Pittsburgh's one-two punch, Francisco Liriano was another key to Pittsburgh's 2015 season success. He had a record of 12-7 and an ERA hovering at 3.38. While he did not have as good of a season as Cole did, he was an integral part of the 2015 season. He lead all starters in strikeouts last season with 205 and was able to tie Cole for the most double plays on the team.
Lirano features one of the nastiest sliders in the league and when it is on opposing batters are going to have a nightmare night at the plate. This slider, set up by his other pitches, leads to these high strikeout numbers. Of his 32 starts last season, he had 6 games in which he struck out 10 or more batters.
He was also a workhorse for the staff only throwing less than 5 innings once during the season. Liriano and Cole set up a nice one two punch for the Pirates and both could be potential all-stars in the 2016 season. While Cole is clearly the best in the starting rotation, it could come down to Liriano's success this season determining whether the Pirates have a chance to compete.
While Liriano does strikeout a lot of batters, his big downfall has been that he can also walk a lot of batters. Last season he walked three or more batters in 13 of his starts. In 2016 he needs to limit the number of walks that he allows during the season. By doing this his strikeout numbers might go down, but in the long run it will be more beneficial to this team.
2016 Prediction
In 2016, Liriano will be able to once again prove a consistent pitcher for Pittsburgh. I can see him with a record of 13-9 and an ERA at around 3.35. He will continue to strikeout batters at a healthy rate, but I feel that the walks will come to haunt him in some contests. But, as I said earlier, Liriano's success or failure could very well determine the Pirates chances in 2016.
Jon Niese #18 LHP
Coming over in the trade that sent Neil Walker to the New York Mets, Niese is coming off of a sub par season with the Mets. He had a record of 9-10 with an ERA at 4.13 for the World Series runner up Mets. Last season was the worst in his major league career and he looks to turn things around again under the watchful eye of pitching coach Ray Searage.
While many fans didnt like this move, I actually agreed with it and think Niese will be a good update to this Pirates rotation. Throughout his career he has been an innings eater with a record at around .500 for the season. This is exactly what the Pirates need for their 2016 rotation. Over his career Niese has averaged about 133 innings a season over his eight year career. His stats are comparable to that of a guy like Paul Maholm.
If Niese is able to keep his career consistency up he will be just fine in the Pirates rotation. Every team needs a guy who can eat innings and keep his team in the ball game. Last season of his 29 starts 18 were quality starts. If he is able to keep the Pirates in ball games, the offense will come around and give him support.
Niese is not going to strike a lot of guys out, so he has to rely on the defense behind him to make plays. He caused 17 double plays last season and looking ahead to this season, that could be a big part of his game. Searage has been known to revitalize the career of pitchers before, so he will have to work with Niese this season and see if he can get him to be a contributor to this Pittsburgh Pirates baseball team.
2016 Prediction
In 2016, I feel Niese will be a consistent starter in the Pirates rotation. I have him with a 10-10 record and an ERA around 3.75. I feel Niese will get good defensive play from the Pirates and that he will be able to work on his strikeout rate. A new venue could be just what Niese needed, and PNC Park is a very friendly park to left handed pitchers. When thinking of Niese's 2016 season, consistency will be the magic word.
Ryan Vogelsong #14 RHP
The two time world series champion and two time all-star Ryan Vogelsong is in a similar situation coming into the 2016 season. He has had a rough last couple of seasons and is looking to rebound in 2016. Last season, Vogelsong had a record of 9-11 with a 4.67 ERA. The 13 year veteran has been up and down his entire career with his major success coming in the 2011 and 2012 seasons where he went a combined 27-15 and lead the Giants to a world championship.
Flash forward to 2016 and we are looking at a beat up veteran looking to bounce back in 2016. I see Vogelsong as the dark horse candidate in this rotation. If he is able to succeed it is a big plus for the Pirates. However, if he fails the Pirates have young pitching depth that can replace him.
He allowed 4.20 runs per nine inning last season and only produced 9 quality starts. He also allowed 58 walks in 135 innings pitched. If he wants to succeed in 2016, he will have to lower his walks and be able to limit the number of runs he allows. With the Clemente wall in PNC Park, Vogelsong will have to watch keeping pitches up in the strike zone as that will smell trouble when facing left handed batters.
Another revision project for Searage, Vogelsong is looking to turn himself around again in 2016. With some hard work and a little bit of luck I could see Vogelsong's numbers jumping a little bit but not nearly to the extent of names like Burnett and Happ in the past.
2016 Prediction
In 2016 I see Vogelsong being an average pitcher at best in the rotation. I have his record at 8-12 with an ERA around 4.20. While I want Vogelsong to succeed in the Pirates rotation, I just cant see him coming back to his 2011-2012 form. He will hopefully prove me wrong, but dont look for Vogelsong to have too much of an impact in 2016.
Jeff Locke #49 LHP
At one point he was considered the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates starting rotation, but now he has dropped off considerably since then. Last season he had a record of 8-12 with an ERA of 4.49. Ever since his successful 2013 season in which he was named an all-star and had a 10-7 record, Locke hasnt been able to piece together a consistent or successful campaign.
He had a walk per nine inning of 3.21 last season while his strikeout per nine sat at 6.90. The major problem with Locke is his inconsistency. When he is on, he is one of the better pitchers in the game. However, when he is off he is one of the worst.
Last season he gave up 3 or more earned runs in 12 of his 30 starts, and in those 12 starts he pitched seven innings once. So, he has given up a lot of runs and hasn't pitched many innings causing much headache for the bullpen. His inconsistencies have caused the Pirates to lose many key games that he has started in.
On the other side, when he gives up 2 runs or less he has been pretty dominant. He has only thrown under four innings in these types of game once. Locke's main area of focus in 2016 is consistency. He has to work on staying in the game longer and keeping the opposing teams runs down.
2016 Prediction
In 2016, I do not see Locke improving at all from 2015. I have him at a record of 5-9 and an ERA around 4.60. I think he will eventually be replaced in the rotation by mid July. With the young pitching talent that Pittsburgh has Locke will have to be able to be more consistent if he wants a chance to stay in the Pirates rotation for the 2016 season.
Overall Rotation Grade: B -
I feel the Pirates 2016 rotation is strong, but not strong enough to be in A territory. There are a lot of questions surrounding the Pirates 2016 starting rotation. Will Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong return to their successful forms, will Cole continue his success, and will Locke ever turn around his career. With spring training only five days away, many of these questions will come to light soon. In the meantime all of these starters should have one word in their mind: Consistency.
No comments:
Post a Comment